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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/11 11:04

   All Grains Higher at Midday

   Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents higher, and wheat is 
4 to 7 cents higher.

David Fiala,DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 260 points. The dollar index 
is 16 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mostly 
higher with crude up $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are 
weaker with gold down $84.


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday with light ongoing buying with 
concerns about damage from the storms yesterday along with position squaring 
ahead of tomorrow's WASDE report. Ethanol margins are stable short term with 
flat energies and gasoline demand holding mostly steady. Basis has remained 
fairly flat in recent days, with pressure likely at locations with a strong 
crop coming soon. On the WASDE report, trade is looking for yields to edge 
above 180 BPA. Weekly crop progress showed conditions down 1% to 72% good to 
excellent and 8% poor to very poor, with 59% in the dough vs. 52% on average, 
and 11% dented vs. 12% on average. On the September contract, trade continues 
to have resistance at the 20-day at $3.20, with chart support at the lower 
Bollinger Band at $3.04.


   Soybean trade is 1 to 3 cents higher with light buying as the export streak 
remained intact with another 132,000 metric tons booked to China. Meal is $0.50 
to $1.50 higher, and oil is 5 to 15 points lower. The ral has weakened vs. the 
dollar the last day or so, but new crop should remain competitive for the U.S. 
for now. Weather looks to continue to be good for most into podfill. Crop 
progress showed good to excellent up 1% to 74% and poor to very poor at 5%, 
with 92% blooming vs. 89% on average, and 75% setting pods vs. 68% on average. 
The WASDE report is expected to show yields moving about 51 BPA. The September 
chart now has resistance at the 20-day at 8.86 which we are pulling back from, 
and support the lower Bollinger band at 8.65.


   Wheat trade is 4 to 7 cents higher with trade remaining choppy while it 
holds the lower end of the range. The ruble is holding vs. the dollar as well 
with more Middle East tenders being scheduled into fall along with weaker 
prices going to exporters on the ones that filled today. Kansas City is at an 
78-cent discount to Chicago with spreads now a dime off the recent highs, while 
Minneapolis is back to a 2 cent discount. Winter wheat harvest 90% complete vs. 
93% on average, and spring wheat 15% complete vs. 25% on average, with good to 
excellent down 3% to 69%, and 7% poor to very poor. The WASDE report will focus 
more on world numbers with increases expected for Russian production tomorrow. 
Kansas City September chart support is the fresh low at $4.09 3/4, with the 
20-day back above the market as nearby resistance at $4.36.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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